Odds of getting perfect charms

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Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by Beacon on Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:02 pm

Who doesn`t love a perfect charm / item. Even though allot of the stats that are perfect are worthless. Imagine a 10 stats Destroyer Shaman Reanimate Harkon with a 249% gold drop. Doesn`t that make you wanna punch a child? Anyways, here`s a list of the odds of getting a perfect charm.

Dificulty is based both on chance to drop and kill speed. It`s easyer to get a perfect Sacred Worldstone Key 1/100 than a Optical Detector 1/121 cuz it takes some time reaching the Infernal Machine.

Btw, exluded the ones with reanimates cuz , I don`t know how many monsters are there

Horazon`s Focus          - 1/45       Easy

Optical Detector           - 1/121      Medium

Laser Focus Crystal      - 1/10       Very Easy

Azmodan`s Heart         - 1/10       Very Easy

Spirit Trance Herb        - 1/3900    Hardest (yet possible)

Idol Of Vanity              - 1/1        Always Perfect

Soul Of Kabraxis           - 1/?        Medium (I get perfect ones quite easy). Odds are unclear

Cold Fusion Schematics  - 1/256000   Not Gonna Happen ... EVER. Even if it does, Trophy`s gonna ruin it!

Butcher`s Tooth           - 1/1        Always Perfect

Scroll of Kings              - 1/25       Very Easy

Sacred Worldstone Key  - 1/100      Medium

Visions of Akarat          - 1/250      Medium

Moon Of The Spider       - 1/5        Very Easy

Legacy Of Blood            - 1/9        Very Easy

Crystaline Flame Medalion -1/1        Always Perfect

Uldyssian`s Sword          - 1/21       Hard ( But if you aim for the trophy you`ll most likely find it)

Soulkeeper                    - 1/5        Easy

Glorious Book Of Median  - 1/37500    Almost Impossible ( Probably Impossible)

Hammer of the Taan Judges- 1/5        Very Easy

Six Angel Bag(Upgraded)      - 1/1953125000000 x 11 / 2   Depends if you prefer -5 light radius or + 5 light radius

Zakarum`s Ear                  - 1/50      Medium

Sunstone of the Gods        - 1/390625000000 Impossible

Lucion's Soulstone             - 1/4        Easy

The Ancient Repositories    - 1/32768000000000  Meh ...

Eternal Bone Pile              - 1/128      Very Hard

Bracyceran`s Token         - 1/2416000  Impossible

Demonsbane                   - 1/2187     Extremly Hard (yet, you never know)

Book Of Lies                   - 1/202500   Harder Than You Thought, Isn`t it?

Silver Seal Of Ureh           - 1/2500000  Impossible

Astrogha`s Venom Stinger - 1/401      Very Hard


Last edited by Beacon on Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:30 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by Aspirine101 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:20 pm

That's nice Smile gonna accept the challenge to collect all perf (well not all LOL but most) charms Very Happy cookie

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by Beacon on Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:34 pm

Awwwe, thanks. I added Sunstone and Six Angel Bag to make your job easier.

Still, the winner is Ancients Repositories. Which is funny since it`s one of the hardest and DEFINITELY longest road to get.

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by Aspirine101 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:50 pm

32768000000000 doing yshari = wasting all my remaining years of life on mxl ^^

and after I get it, sigma releases ofc and char wipe.

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by Beacon on Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:59 pm

Sorry to disappoint you but, an average human lives let`s say 75 years, which means 2365200000 seconds. Odds of that charm are 32768000000000. Soooo if you just got born and you can do about 13854 Yshari runs per second, then yeah ... you might just find that perfect charm.

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by RollsRoyce on Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:16 pm

i think i remember a screenshot of a perfect idol of vanity ...but long ago
back then it was 20-40% for the speeds so it was very hard to get a perfect one.

Nice list anyway Very Happy

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by Aspirine101 on Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:18 pm

@Beacon wrote:Sorry to disappoint you but, an average human lives let`s say 75 years, which means 2365200000 seconds. Odds of that charm are 32768000000000. Soooo if you just got born and you can do about 13854 Yshari runs per second, then yeah ... you might just find that perfect charm.
Ok, gonna get speed boost+rebirth and i'll talk to you after 75 yrs Smile
that is, if I will live Sad

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by Beacon on Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:49 am

Speaking of Odds, I got the weirdest thing about a month ago.

Was farming Volrath, and I got 2 completely Identical Harkon CRystals one after the other

8 stats
236 Gold
Fire Drake reanimate

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by GregMXL on Mon Nov 11, 2013 2:49 pm

Good thread. Wow..some of these odds are like actually playing the lottery in real life.

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Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Post by MarcoNecroX on Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:31 pm

Hmm. I'm always a bit skeptical towards 'odds' on finding stuff.

Why? let's assume probabilities stack. So you go farm a trophy, in 50 runs you have 100% chance to find it.
But the next thing is, what tells you that you will find it in the 50th run, and not in the 10th?

Supposing you found it in the 10th run, you could run it 40 more times with 0% chances to finding a second one (in this hypoteticall case). Here, the chances would succesfully be 2%. However, if you don't do these last 40 runs, you ended up getting one trophy in 10 runs, translated to 1/10 chance.  In this hypoteticall case, there is in fact only a 2% chance that the drop chance is 2%, because you will have only 2% chance to find it on the 50th run and not before (again, implying probabilities do stack, which isn't correct, but in the long run, they have a tendency to stack)

This means, the chance to get a trophy in the first run is the same as finding it in the last run, which gives us an average of 1/25 real drop chance, instead of 1/50, if we stop farming once we get the trophy (if we keep farming, the chances will go to 1/50 eventually). Sure this can be compensated by some bad luck and having no trophy in 100 runs, but for the most part, if you don't suck at life, it shouldn't happen Bouncing Mr. Green 

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