# Odds of getting perfect charms

## Odds of getting perfect charms

Who doesn`t love a perfect charm / item. Even though allot of the stats that are perfect are worthless. Imagine a 10 stats Destroyer Shaman Reanimate Harkon with a 249% gold drop. Doesn`t that make you wanna punch a child? Anyways, here`s a list of the odds of getting a perfect charm.

Dificulty is based both on chance to drop and kill speed. It`s easyer to get a perfect Sacred Worldstone Key 1/100 than a Optical Detector 1/121 cuz it takes some time reaching the Infernal Machine.

Btw, exluded the ones with reanimates cuz , I don`t know how many monsters are there

Dificulty is based both on chance to drop and kill speed. It`s easyer to get a perfect Sacred Worldstone Key 1/100 than a Optical Detector 1/121 cuz it takes some time reaching the Infernal Machine.

Btw, exluded the ones with reanimates cuz , I don`t know how many monsters are there

**Horazon`s Focus - 1/45 Easy**

Optical Detector - 1/121 Medium

Laser Focus Crystal - 1/10 Very Easy

Azmodan`s Heart - 1/10 Very Easy

Spirit Trance Herb - 1/3900 Hardest (yet possible)

Idol Of Vanity - 1/1 Always Perfect

Soul Of Kabraxis - 1/? Medium (I get perfect ones quite easy). Odds are unclear

Cold Fusion Schematics - 1/256000 Not Gonna Happen ... EVER. Even if it does, Trophy`s gonna ruin it!

Butcher`s Tooth - 1/1 Always Perfect

Scroll of Kings - 1/25 Very Easy

Sacred Worldstone Key - 1/100 Medium

Visions of Akarat - 1/250 Medium

Moon Of The Spider - 1/5 Very Easy

Legacy Of Blood - 1/9 Very Easy

Crystaline Flame Medalion -1/1 Always Perfect

Uldyssian`s Sword - 1/21 Hard ( But if you aim for the trophy you`ll most likely find it)

Soulkeeper - 1/5 Easy

Glorious Book Of Median - 1/37500 Almost Impossible ( Probably Impossible)

Hammer of the Taan Judges- 1/5 Very Easy

Six Angel Bag(Upgraded) - 1/1953125000000 x 11 / 2 Depends if you prefer -5 light radius or + 5 light radius

Zakarum`s Ear - 1/50 Medium

Sunstone of the Gods - 1/390625000000 Impossible

Lucion's Soulstone - 1/4 Easy

The Ancient Repositories - 1/32768000000000 Meh ...

Eternal Bone Pile - 1/128 Very Hard

Bracyceran`s Token - 1/2416000 Impossible

Demonsbane - 1/2187 Extremly Hard (yet, you never know)

Book Of Lies - 1/202500 Harder Than You Thought, Isn`t it?

Silver Seal Of Ureh - 1/2500000 Impossible

Astrogha`s Venom Stinger - 1/401 Very HardOptical Detector - 1/121 Medium

Laser Focus Crystal - 1/10 Very Easy

Azmodan`s Heart - 1/10 Very Easy

Spirit Trance Herb - 1/3900 Hardest (yet possible)

Idol Of Vanity - 1/1 Always Perfect

Soul Of Kabraxis - 1/? Medium (I get perfect ones quite easy). Odds are unclear

Cold Fusion Schematics - 1/256000 Not Gonna Happen ... EVER. Even if it does, Trophy`s gonna ruin it!

Butcher`s Tooth - 1/1 Always Perfect

Scroll of Kings - 1/25 Very Easy

Sacred Worldstone Key - 1/100 Medium

Visions of Akarat - 1/250 Medium

Moon Of The Spider - 1/5 Very Easy

Legacy Of Blood - 1/9 Very Easy

Crystaline Flame Medalion -1/1 Always Perfect

Uldyssian`s Sword - 1/21 Hard ( But if you aim for the trophy you`ll most likely find it)

Soulkeeper - 1/5 Easy

Glorious Book Of Median - 1/37500 Almost Impossible ( Probably Impossible)

Hammer of the Taan Judges- 1/5 Very Easy

Six Angel Bag(Upgraded) - 1/1953125000000 x 11 / 2 Depends if you prefer -5 light radius or + 5 light radius

Zakarum`s Ear - 1/50 Medium

Sunstone of the Gods - 1/390625000000 Impossible

Lucion's Soulstone - 1/4 Easy

The Ancient Repositories - 1/32768000000000 Meh ...

Eternal Bone Pile - 1/128 Very Hard

Bracyceran`s Token - 1/2416000 Impossible

Demonsbane - 1/2187 Extremly Hard (yet, you never know)

Book Of Lies - 1/202500 Harder Than You Thought, Isn`t it?

Silver Seal Of Ureh - 1/2500000 Impossible

Astrogha`s Venom Stinger - 1/401 Very Hard

Last edited by Beacon on Sun Nov 10, 2013 10:30 pm; edited 1 time in total

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

That's nice gonna accept the challenge to collect all perf (well not all LOL but most) charms cookie

**Aspirine101****Lord Primus**- Islamic B&D Princess

Posts : 8578

None

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Awwwe, thanks. I added Sunstone and Six Angel Bag to make your job easier.

Still, the winner is Ancients Repositories. Which is funny since it`s one of the hardest and DEFINITELY longest road to get.

Still, the winner is Ancients Repositories. Which is funny since it`s one of the hardest and DEFINITELY longest road to get.

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

32768000000000 doing yshari = wasting all my remaining years of life on mxl ^^

and after I get it, sigma releases ofc and char wipe.

and after I get it, sigma releases ofc and char wipe.

**Aspirine101****Lord Primus**- Islamic B&D Princess

Posts : 8578

None

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Sorry to disappoint you but, an average human lives let`s say 75 years, which means 2365200000 seconds. Odds of that charm are 32768000000000. Soooo if you just got born and you can do about 13854 Yshari runs per second, then yeah ... you might just find that perfect charm.

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

i think i remember a screenshot of a perfect idol of vanity ...but long ago

back then it was 20-40% for the speeds so it was very hard to get a perfect one.

Nice list anyway

back then it was 20-40% for the speeds so it was very hard to get a perfect one.

Nice list anyway

**RollsRoyce**- The Smith
- 롤스로이스 ☆☆☆☆

Posts : 3320

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Ok, gonna get speed boost+rebirth and i'll talk to you after 75 yrs@Beacon wrote:Sorry to disappoint you but, an average human lives let`s say 75 years, which means 2365200000 seconds. Odds of that charm are 32768000000000. Soooo if you just got born and you can do about 13854 Yshari runs per second, then yeah ... you might just find that perfect charm.

that is, if I will live

**Aspirine101****Lord Primus**- Islamic B&D Princess

Posts : 8578

None

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Speaking of Odds, I got the weirdest thing about a month ago.

Was farming Volrath, and I got 2 completely Identical Harkon CRystals one after the other

8 stats

236 Gold

Fire Drake reanimate

Was farming Volrath, and I got 2 completely Identical Harkon CRystals one after the other

8 stats

236 Gold

Fire Drake reanimate

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Good thread. Wow..some of these odds are like actually playing the lottery in real life.

_____________________

We mortals are but shadows and dust, shadows and dust, Maximus!

**GregMXL****Zorun Tzin**- Epic Admin

Posts : 13835

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Hmm. I'm always a bit skeptical towards 'odds' on finding stuff.

Why? let's assume probabilities stack. So you go farm a trophy, in 50 runs you have 100% chance to find it.

But the next thing is, what tells you that you will find it in the 50th run, and not in the 10th?

Supposing you found it in the 10th run, you could run it 40 more times with 0% chances to finding a second one (in this hypoteticall case). Here, the chances would succesfully be 2%. However, if you don't do these last 40 runs, you ended up getting one trophy in 10 runs, translated to 1/10 chance. In this hypoteticall case, there is in fact only a 2% chance that the drop chance is 2%, because you will have only 2% chance to find it on the 50th run and not before (again, implying probabilities do stack, which isn't correct, but in the long run, they have a tendency to stack)

This means, the chance to get a trophy in the first run is the same as finding it in the last run, which gives us an average of 1/25 real drop chance, instead of 1/50, if we stop farming once we get the trophy (if we keep farming, the chances will go to 1/50 eventually). Sure this can be compensated by some bad luck and having no trophy in 100 runs, but for the most part, if you don't suck at life, it shouldn't happen

Why? let's assume probabilities stack. So you go farm a trophy, in 50 runs you have 100% chance to find it.

But the next thing is, what tells you that you will find it in the 50th run, and not in the 10th?

Supposing you found it in the 10th run, you could run it 40 more times with 0% chances to finding a second one (in this hypoteticall case). Here, the chances would succesfully be 2%. However, if you don't do these last 40 runs, you ended up getting one trophy in 10 runs, translated to 1/10 chance. In this hypoteticall case, there is in fact only a 2% chance that the drop chance is 2%, because you will have only 2% chance to find it on the 50th run and not before (again, implying probabilities do stack, which isn't correct, but in the long run, they have a tendency to stack)

This means, the chance to get a trophy in the first run is the same as finding it in the last run, which gives us an average of 1/25 real drop chance, instead of 1/50, if we stop farming once we get the trophy (if we keep farming, the chances will go to 1/50 eventually). Sure this can be compensated by some bad luck and having no trophy in 100 runs, but for the most part, if you don't suck at life, it shouldn't happen

_____________________

http://www.median-xl.com

**MarcoNecroX****Malthael**- Führer

Posts : 10181

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Most annoying charm to get is Jitan's charm. I get 2 trophys before i get charm on my traprat ;p

**hellgrind**- Burning Dead
- Not so well known...

Posts : 1044

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

There is 50% chance that i suck at life

**Metalistas**- Goliath
- Posts : 2609

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

@MarcoNecroX wrote:Hmm. I'm always a bit skeptical towards 'odds' on finding stuff.

Why? let's assume probabilities stack. So you go farm a trophy, in 50 runs you have 100% chance to find it.

But the next thing is, what tells you that you will find it in the 50th run, and not in the 10th?

Supposing you found it in the 10th run, you could run it 40 more times with 0% chances to finding a second one (in this hypoteticall case). Here, the chances would succesfully be 2%. However, if you don't do these last 40 runs, you ended up getting one trophy in 10 runs, translated to 1/10 chance. In this hypoteticall case, there is in fact only a 2% chance that the drop chance is 2%, because you will have only 2% chance to find it on the 50th run and not before (again, implying probabilities do stack, which isn't correct, but in the long run, they have a tendency to stack)

This means, the chance to get a trophy in the first run is the same as finding it in the last run, which gives us an average of 1/25 real drop chance, instead of 1/50, if we stop farming once we get the trophy (if we keep farming, the chances will go to 1/50 eventually). Sure this can be compensated by some bad luck and having no trophy in 100 runs, but for the most part, if you don't suck at life, it shouldn't happen

Well, probability theory is a really complex thing. The point of this was for people to see what perfect charms they can actually get, and what they will never get (or in case they do make sure everyone knows it). 2% is a way to small probability to ever be precise. For instance I`ve been doing shitloads of Athulua runs and didn`t find a trophy. Then I got 2 consecutive ones. But if someone would do let`s say 100.000.000 runs, he would get very close to having 2.000.000 trophies. And the closer you get to infinite runs the more precise that 2% would be. For who knows a bit of math euler`s number plays a major role in this whole thing.

Anyways, 50 runs doesn`t mean a 100% chance that you find the trophy. And also, it`s not the same chance to get a trophy on the first and last run. This is where expectancy kicks in. You do know there`s a 1/50 chance to find a trophy. After you don`t find it the first 30 runs, the expectancy for it to drop is higher. So you keep farming it till it drops. But let`s assume that you kill Akarat 400 times and he didn`t drop a trophy. And he drops it the 401th time. In that case, it would be wise to keep farming because the chances for him to drop trophies at a much higher rate increase. So if someone does 100 runs and no trophy, after you finally find it, keep farming a bit more because the chances for another one to drop very soon are much higher than in another 50 runs.

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

It's actually the same as in the first run. Your hopes might be higher :)You can farm infinity and still not get it.After you don`t find it the first 30 runs, the expectancy for it to drop is higher.

Yes, going back to pixelsSo you keep farming it till it drops.

**Metalistas**- Goliath
- Posts : 2609

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

The chance is rolled once the TC is dropped, and it is rerolled on every kills. The number of times you kill the boss in your example is irrelevant. One could kill it 350 times without getting a single trophy, while another guy could get 3 trophies in 7 runs.@MarcoNecroX wrote:Hmm. I'm always a bit skeptical towards 'odds' on finding stuff.

Why? let's assume probabilities stack. So you go farm a trophy, in 50 runs you have 100% chance to find it.

But the next thing is, what tells you that you will find it in the 50th run, and not in the 10th?

Supposing you found it in the 10th run, you could run it 40 more times with 0% chances to finding a second one (in this hypoteticall case). Here, the chances would succesfully be 2%. However, if you don't do these last 40 runs, you ended up getting one trophy in 10 runs, translated to 1/10 chance. In this hypoteticall case, there is in fact only a 2% chance that the drop chance is 2%, because you will have only 2% chance to find it on the 50th run and not before (again, implying probabilities do stack, which isn't correct, but in the long run, they have a tendency to stack)

This means, the chance to get a trophy in the first run is the same as finding it in the last run, which gives us an average of 1/25 real drop chance, instead of 1/50, if we stop farming once we get the trophy (if we keep farming, the chances will go to 1/50 eventually). Sure this can be compensated by some bad luck and having no trophy in 100 runs, but for the most part, if you don't suck at life, it shouldn't happen

It's all about luck. If you kill the boss at the moment where the game will roll a number inferior to 2, the trophy drops. If you were to summon 100 of them at once and kill them within a few seconds, your chances to have the trophy dropping would be greatly increased due to the fact the number would be rolled 100 times in a small time span.

The chance is rolled like this (might not be the exact values, but it's something long those lines)

if (rand() % TotalRarity <= Probability)

{

//drop the trophy

}

**whist**- Nihlathak
- Huehuehue™

Posts : 3927

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

@Metalistas wrote:It's actually the same as in the first run. Your hopes might be higher :)You can farm infinity and still not get it.After you don`t find it the first 30 runs, the expectancy for it to drop is higher.Yes, going back to pixelsSo you keep farming it till it drops.

Awwwe, you tried to be smart ...

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

useless addition .....dont confuse things marco ...in 50 runs the expected amount of trophies is 1 however since its a geomotric distribution your probability is lower its only 63%....useless addition end

**RollsRoyce**- The Smith
- 롤스로이스 ☆☆☆☆

Posts : 3320

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

The events of item dropping are independent. New game - new chance. So it's the same probability every time. Not the p(1-p) which i believe you are trying to imply. There is no hidden calculator counting your failed atempts.Awwwe, you tried to be smart ... Clap Clap

**Metalistas**- Goliath
- Posts : 2609

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

actually you can apply the p(1-p) because they are independant

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_likelihood

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_likelihood

**RollsRoyce**- The Smith
- 롤스로이스 ☆☆☆☆

Posts : 3320

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

let's turn this thread into a "who knows most math" ego-thread

sry for those who didn't understand my post was a joke

sry for those who didn't understand my post was a joke

_____________________

http://www.median-xl.com

**MarcoNecroX****Malthael**- Führer

Posts : 10181

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Ok, let`s make it easyer. You have a dice. You have 1/6 to get any number.@Metalistas wrote:The events of item dropping are independent. New game - new chance. So it's the same probability every time. Not the p(1-p) which i believe you are trying to imply. There is no hidden calculator counting your failed atempts.Awwwe, you tried to be smart ... Clap Clap

You aim for 6.

You can throw six times and get 4 3 3 2 5 1 ... no 6

Obviously everytime you throw the dice it`s the same probability to get 6

However, at some point, a six has to drop.

Wouldn`t it be weird if you threw that dice 10.000 times and never got a 6?

So you throw it 15 times and you get 4 3 3 2 5 1 2 4 5 5 5 3 1 2 2 ... at some point, you`ll start getting 6 more often than every 6th throw because that is the law of large numbers. Everything evens out

THAT`s Probability.

Or here`s the simplest example:

You have a coin: it has 2 sides, heads & tails

You can throw the coin 1 time and you`ll get heads:0 tails:1

You throw it 10 times and you can get heads:8 tails:2 -------- here you have heads 4 times more often

You throw it 100 times and you can get heads:32 tails:68 ------- here you have tails 2 times more often

But let`s say you throw it 1.000.000.000 times ... do you think there`s ever going to be such a huge difference? You can`t get Heads:10.000 and Tails:999.990.000

It`ll be more like Tails:499.867.367 Heads: 500.132.633

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

it`s not about that ... just trying to explain how this thing works@MarcoNecroX wrote:let's turn this thread into a "who knows most math" ego-thread

sry for those who didn't understand my post was a joke

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

and this was basicly over as soon as whist posted the code, since thats the most accurate explanation here@Beacon wrote:

it`s not about that ... just trying to explain how this thing works

=> a seed which is used to generate random values

**RollsRoyce**- The Smith
- 롤스로이스 ☆☆☆☆

Posts : 3320

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

it would be just a lot smarter to make a probability based on very good rolls rather than perfect.

i.e. chance of finding a good belial charm: 1/9 (450+ hp)

if you remove order / stack some stats into same group (like, total elemental damage from sunstone of the gods) and allow a slightly lower number, the probabilities will increase significantly, giving you a better perception of finding a good roll from it

i.e. chance of finding a good belial charm: 1/9 (450+ hp)

if you remove order / stack some stats into same group (like, total elemental damage from sunstone of the gods) and allow a slightly lower number, the probabilities will increase significantly, giving you a better perception of finding a good roll from it

_____________________

http://www.median-xl.com

**MarcoNecroX****Malthael**- Führer

Posts : 10181

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

@MarcoNecroX wrote:it would be just a lot smarter to make a probability based on very good rolls rather than perfect.

i.e. chance of finding a good belial charm: 1/9 (450+ hp)

if you remove order / stack some stats into same group (like, total elemental damage from sunstone of the gods) and allow a slightly lower number, the probabilities will increase significantly, giving you a better perception of finding a good roll from it

yeah but good rolls are pretty subjective

a good roll for a character depends if he`s a caster, if he needs AR, the extra mana,

the only universal things are life regen, life after each kill, skills, resists, extra life, magic find

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Statistics also tells us that as you increase sample size, the predicted average becomes more accurate. In the case of a trophy, you would get a value closer to 2% the larger your sample size becomes.

Also don't tell me azmodon is an easy charm to get perfect. I can't tell you how many damn 39% charms I've found before realizing 1% res is nothing and giving up.

Also don't tell me azmodon is an easy charm to get perfect. I can't tell you how many damn 39% charms I've found before realizing 1% res is nothing and giving up.

**The Big Ouchy**- Bear Shaman
- More brilliant than Chuck Noris!

Posts : 1154

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

well, if you re-roll a map with WP next to his Reliquary, you go in, tele, kill, grab ... with a decent character it takes 15 seconds / run@The Big Ouchy wrote:Statistics also tells us that as you increase sample size, the predicted average becomes more accurate. In the case of a trophy, you would get a value closer to 2% the larger your sample size becomes.

Also don't tell me azmodon is an easy charm to get perfect. I can't tell you how many damn 39% charms I've found before realizing 1% res is nothing and giving up.

you can get a perfect heart in like less than 5 minutes

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

@The Big Ouchy wrote:Statistics also tells us that as you increase sample size, the predicted average becomes more accurate. In the case of a trophy, you would get a value closer to 2% the larger your sample size becomes.

Also don't tell me azmodon is an easy charm to get perfect. I can't tell you how many damn 39% charms I've found before realizing 1% res is nothing and giving up.

10% chance ... common, with a good char and a wp close to him it takes 20 second runs

you can get the heart in MAXIMUM 5 minutes

**Beacon**- Blood Stone
- Innovative Builds Guy

Posts : 203

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

So if you and me play dice, you will put money on 6 every time ?

**Metalistas**- Goliath
- Posts : 2609

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Calculating the chance won't really help you in getting a better roll,or a trophy drop.Here's a ss i made few months ago killing Akarat over 150 times for his trophy (and yes i had Qoo on ... no need to whine about it).

I got my first trophy around 120 and till the end i got 3 more.Was there a perfect charm you ask ? Well i have no idea cuz i didnt check them.

I got my first trophy around 120 and till the end i got 3 more.Was there a perfect charm you ask ? Well i have no idea cuz i didnt check them.

**IntelBG**- Gloom
- Posts : 12

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

Is it known for sure that if it is written 2-4, probability to get 4 is 33%?

**FrostS**- Corruptor Warlock
- Posts : 179

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

@ Intel

nice Screen

nice Screen

**RollsRoyce**- The Smith
- 롤스로이스 ☆☆☆☆

Posts : 3320

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

@RollsRoyce

You were in that game as well if you don't remember

You were in that game as well if you don't remember

**IntelBG**- Gloom
- Posts : 12

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

i think when i came in there were already a few akarats

... i think it was that game where kabraxis died 30 seconds later(lol)

... i think it was that game where kabraxis died 30 seconds later(lol)

**RollsRoyce**- The Smith
- 롤스로이스 ☆☆☆☆

Posts : 3320

Transferred

Country :

## Re: Odds of getting perfect charms

I'm still crying that I have a +249 +25 charm wanted a perfect one so much@IntelBG wrote:Calculating the chance won't really help you in getting a better roll,or a trophy drop.Here's a ss i made few months ago killing Akarat over 150 times for his trophy (and yes i had Qoo on ... no need to whine about it).

I got my first trophy around 120 and till the end i got 3 more.Was there a perfect charm you ask ? Well i have no idea cuz i didnt check them.

**Aspirine101****Lord Primus**- Islamic B&D Princess

Posts : 8578

None

Country :

Page

**1**of**1****Permissions in this forum:**

**cannot**reply to topics in this forum